By studying and anticipating trends in consumer finances, motivations, attitudes and lifestyles, opportunities and threats can be revealed.
Trends can be valuable but they can also be misleading. For example, the oil price fell throughout the early 1980’s and then fluctuated within a narrow band before reaching a low of under $12 per barrel in 1998. Most predictions were for oil to continue to be cheap but the price climbed above $30 by mid 2000 and reached $50 by the end of 2004.
Trends can also just be fads that lead to expensive new product failures. For example, in September 2004, Unilever Australia launched 23 low-carbohydrate products under the Carb Options brand. Sales were predicted to grow from $3 million to $50 million by 2006. The company started dropping Carb Options products in 2005 and no longer sells low-carbohydrate products (source: Australian Financial Review, 12 February 2007).
This is why it is important to subject trends to critical analysis before relying on them. As it happens, an article in Scientific American in 1998 predicted the end of cheap oil. Businesses taking note of that article would have been able to minimize the damage caused by the rapid price increase since. Detroit-based car manufacturers ignored that prediction and have since lost considerable market share to Toyota and Honda.
While it is important to study trends it is vital to evaluate the sustainability of trends and to be aware of factors which could disrupt existing trends or create new trends. This new, ongoing trend service from foreseechange will scan existing trends, identify emerging and potential trends, and evaluate trends on the basis of their importance in Australia and their reliability.
Outputs will include a trend encyclopedia, a dashboard which displays movements in key trends, and reports that include both quantitative and qualitative assessments of trends.
The cost of these outputs in 2007 is $495 (includes GST).
Description of Australian Consumer Trends 2007