Sometimes, it is too risky to rely on a single forecast. This can be the case in long-term planning, as the confidence interval around a forecast widens. Also, plans may depend on factors, such as technological or political, that evolve discontinuously.
One approach to planning in the face of uncertainty is to construct scenarios. Peter Schwartz, the author of "The Art of the Long View", describes scenarios as follows.
In a scenario process, managers invent and then consider, in depth, several varied stories of equally varied plausible futures. The stories are carefully researched, full of relevant detail, oriented towards real-life decisions, and designed to bring forward surprises and unexpected leaps of understanding. Together, the scenarios comprise a tool for ordering one's perceptions. The point is not to "pick one preferred future," and hope that it comes to pass (or, even, work to create it - though there are some situations where acting to create a better future is a useful function of scenarios). Nor is the point to find the most probable future and adapt to it or "bet the company on it". Rather, the point is to make strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. No matter what future takes place, you are more likely to be ready for it - and influential in it - if you have thought seriously about scenarios.
Here are some scenarios that, we hope, provoke some thought about possible futures.
Oil Prices Harm Australia's Economy
New Generation Electricity Generation
The Death of the Profit Motive in the Provision of Essential Services