Where
have all the babies gone?
Australia’s fertility rate could fall to
1.6
Charlie Nelson
director, foreseechange
January 2003
The recent release of births statistics for 2001 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the first signs of changes to long established trends. If these signs persist, Australia’s fertility rate could fall from 1.73 in 2001 to less than 1.6 by 2010. A recent survey by foreseechange shows that people expect to be much less concerned in the future about Australia’s population growth rate than other social issues. In addition, the majority of adults disagree that Australia would be a better place with a much larger population.
Australia’s fertility rate peaked at 3.55 in 1961 before the impact of the oral contraceptive which was introduced in the same year. Since then fertility has dropped almost every year, falling below replacement level (about 2.1) in 1976.
Most dramatic has been the fall in fertility amongst women under 30 (Chart 1). Amongst women aged 20 to 24, fertility has dropped from 221 per 1,000 in 1961 to 58 in 2001 – a drop of 74%!
Some of this drop represented a permanent fall in fertility
and part was a deferral, resulting in rising fertility rates for women over 30
from the late 1970’s
Chart 1
But the steady increase in fertility amongst women in their
30’s came to an abrupt end in 2001 (Chart 2).
At the same time, the long-term decline in fertility amongst women aged
20 to 24 also came to an abrupt end. As
there are now more women aged both 30 to 34 and 35 to 39 than are aged 20 to 24,
the former break in trend is likely to be more influential in the future.
Chart 2
Based on data to 2000 only, our extrapolation models for each age group resulted in a projection of steady fertility of 1.75 to 2010. Based on 2001 data, the projection is 1.57. Chart 3 shows the full history and forecasts for each age group.
Of course, the 2001 data could be a random “blip” and the previous trends may resume. Perhaps the introduction of the GST in 2000 made the perceived costs of having children too high for some people. However, there is certainly no evidence that fertility will rise over the next decade.
Chart 3
In addition to the impact of the contraceptive pill, other factors that have driven falling fertility are a re-interpretation of abortion laws in the early 1970’s and the spread of equal pay for women.
Many more women are choosing to remain childless – the Australian Bureau of Statistics has projected that 25% of women born in the 1970’s will remain childless, compared with less than 10% of women born in the 1920’s and 1930’s. This projection is supported by a recent finding by the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics survey conducted by Melbourne University’s Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research for the Federal Government. It has found that 27% of males 18-24 expect to remain childless and 21% of females of this age also expect to remain childless.
A recent survey by foreseechange, based on 500 telephone interviews nationally, has found that population growth is a relatively unimportant issue. Respondents were asked to rate 27 issues on the basis of how concerned they expect to be about each in the future. Australia’s population growth rate ranked 22nd out of the 27 (just behind terrorism, Australia’s economic growth rate, and immigration). Health, education and the environment topped the list.
In addition, only 30% agree that Australia would be a better place with a much larger population, while 54% disagree (Chart 4).
While choices about having children are primarily based on
personal motivations anyway, it is clearly unlikely that any attempt to
encourage increased fertility for patriotic reasons would succeed.
Chart 4
