foreseechange
forecasting and futures consultants
techniques for forecasting and market analysis
Our actions to reduce greenhouse gasses
foreseechange provides accurate and insightful forecasts. We use advanced forecasting models, specified on the basis of our research into how markets actually work.
foreseechange was established in 2000 by Charlie Nelson.
Download Charlie's track record for accurate forecasts (pdf format)
Consumer Pulse Analytics
Australian consumers have received several economic and psychological shocks during 2008. As would be expected, discretionary spending growth has slowed. Retailers and their suppliers are feeling the pain.
But despite all the shocks, consumers are still spent 4.4% more in shops during 2008 than in 2007.
Furthermore, it is only some consumer segments which have cut back – other segments are spending the same and some are spending more.
Our Willingness to Spend report quantifies how much of a one-off windfall will be spent, saved, and used for loan repayment. This is broken down by demographic and geographic area so that those consumers who are most willing to spend can be identified and targeted.
Based on our tacking surveys, which were commenced on a national basis in 2003, we predicted that about $2 billion of the December fiscal stimulus package of nearly $10 billion would be spent by consumers (Sydney Morning Herald, October 23, page 32). We now know that about $700 million extra was spent in shops in December and as retail turnover is about one-third of household consumption spending, our $2 billion prediction seems pretty accurate.
Our big spenders research identifies and tracks the most attractive consumer segments to enable adaptive targeting.
Our consumer spending prospects indicators provide a guide to future consumer spending in various categories
An essential guide for planning and risk management
Economic and demographic forecasts. What will be the impact on consumer spending of the government's fiscal stimulus package? Tune into the wisdom of the masses. Track social, attitudinal, and workforce trends. How should investment portfolios be adapted given recent shocks in financial markets? Scenarios for fuel prices.
2007 Australian Corporate Social Responsibility Study
Index of Consumer Sentiment Misleads
But Consumer Pulse® provides a good indicator of discretionary consumer spending (pdf file)
Tracking the drivers and measures of consumer spending growth in Australia
Tracking surveys of ability and willingness to spend, expected interest rate and house price movements.
April 2009 update: Great news for retailers - willingness and ability to spend improve strongly.
"[Charlie] Nelson is one of Australia's most respected forecasters of consumer behaviour and spending patterns. Why is he respected? Because most of his forecasts come true"
Neil Shoebridge, Business Review Weekly, November 13-19, 2003, page 62.